{"id":205,"date":"2012-11-09T09:10:41","date_gmt":"2012-11-09T14:10:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/?p=205"},"modified":"2012-11-09T09:10:41","modified_gmt":"2012-11-09T14:10:41","slug":"the-data-are-what-the-data-are-part-deux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2012\/11\/09\/the-data-are-what-the-data-are-part-deux\/","title":{"rendered":"The Data Are What The Data Are Part Deux"},"content":{"rendered":"

I told you so.<\/del><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In case you missed it, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium<\/a> and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight<\/a>\u00a0among others\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0correctly predicted the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election. \u00a0And not only “correctly predicted” but predicted to a highly accurate degree the final electoral counts (and how FLA was a coin toss, statistically) and the popular votes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In case you’re wondering, those screams you’ve heard around Charlotte, NC for the last two weeks have been me every time I’ve heard or read some media report going into the election that it was a close race, a toss up, and we had no idea what was going to happen. \u00a0When the statistical analysts are coming back with 90% (Nate Silver) to \u00a099 to 100% (Sam Wang) chance of the president winning, we have a pretty freaking good idea of what the data are saying.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Let’s put it this way, the next time, it calls for a 99% chance of rain, and you don’t carry an umbrella because you really, really want for it to be sunny? \u00a0I will have a similar reaction.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So what are the takeaways?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1) \u00a0Feelings are not facts<\/strong>. \u00a0I got this from a friend who is a therapist when we were discussing what the pundits were predicting versus what the data were predicting. \u00a0Somewhere along the way, American society has equated opinions with data. \u00a0They are not the same. And in cases, of oh, I don’t know, smoking and health outcomes, climate change, or evolution, you can hold on to your deeply held beliefs, but if they don’t match the preponderance of the data, your beliefs are wrong.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2) Combined data is better than single data sources<\/strong>. Any one data source can have problems. \u00a0Indeed, Gallup was off. \u00a0WAY off. \u00a0Why? Because they significantly overestimated the white turnout<\/a>. \u00a0That does not mean one should ignore data that doesn’t agree with your opinions or even the rest of the data. \u00a0The cool thing about data aggregation is that it includes all<\/em> the data and lets the errors\/assumptions\/sampling quirks statistically cancel each other out.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

3) Learn how to trust and doubt at the same time<\/strong>. \u00a0This is an advanced smarty pants move, and something I want to credit the writings and theorizing of Karl Weick<\/a>. \u00a0I also credit Public Image Limited<\/a> for the same sentiment, but Weick is cited more academically. \u00a0What it means is that you should believe your beliefs and be open to them being wrong. \u00a0You should use your data, but it may have errors that haven’t been accounted for. \u00a0You should, essentially, not believe much as being 100% true and should be open to, if not looking for, information to adjust your beliefs and improve your data. \u00a0And if you don’t? \u00a0If you are someone who only<\/em> wants to hear about data that supports your beliefs and purposefully ignore the rest the data? \u00a0You scare the crap out of me<\/a>. \u00a0Or, actually, it’s makes it harder to gain the respect of others.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So, there you go. \u00a0Data, once again, remain neutral. Science\/statistics\/math can help us uncover the truth. \u00a0We should all try to find some data that don’t support our beliefs and cogitate on them for a while.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I told you so.   In case you missed it, Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight\u00a0among others\u00a0\u00a0correctly predicted the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election. \u00a0And not only “correctly predicted” but predicted to a highly accurate degree the final electoral counts (and how FLA was a coin toss, statistically) and the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p67nDP-3j","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":198,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2012\/10\/29\/the-role-of-data\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":0},"title":"The Data Are What the Data Are","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"October 29, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"One of the first concepts I learned in graduate school, from Dr. Dale Berger, is \"The data are what the data are.\" \u00a0 What this means is that the results of your study are neutral and objective. \u00a0If they support your hypotheses, they aren't \"good,\" and if they don't support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":172,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2012\/02\/14\/dooce-sensemaking-and-community\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":1},"title":"Dooce, Sensemaking, and Community","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"February 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, that has been an interesting ride since my last post. \u00a0 First, who knew how many people would be searching the web to try to find out why Dooce is getting divorced? According to my site stats, about 700 have stopped by this site after conducting a web search\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":348,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2019\/05\/06\/preliminary-thoughts-on-the-unc-charlotte-shooting\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":2},"title":"Preliminary Thoughts on the UNC Charlotte Shooting","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"May 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"I want to be clear: this is what it has been like for me in the last week. There are over 30,000 students, faculty, and staff at UNC Charlotte and I'm pretty sure there have been over 30,001 reactions to a gunman shooting our students last Tuesday. So far, I've\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2005\/09\/29\/hello-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":3},"title":"Preliminary Results for the Julie\/Julia Project","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"September 29, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"The preliminary results from this project are now available.\u00a0\u00a0Additionally, the results from this project have been written up in Blogs as Virtual Communities:\u00a0 Identifying a Sense of Community for \"Into the Blogosphere:\u00a0 Rhetoric, Community, and Culture\". I will be writing up a final report to be published in peer reviewed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":286,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2015\/11\/04\/career-ambitions-and-family\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":4},"title":"Career Ambitions and Family","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"November 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"So, I've got about 30 minutes before I take my twin son to the pulminologist. \u00a0You can read about what is going on with pneumonia in our family here, here,\u00a0here,\u00a0and here. \u00a0My personal blog is where I focus on my children and my experiences of being a mother. In this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":150,"url":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/2012\/01\/12\/end-of-sabbatical\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":5},"title":"End of Sabbatical","author":"Anita Blanchard","date":"January 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"I thought I'd have more time to \u00a0update my blog during sabbatical. \u00a0I imagined posts along the lines of \"Here is what I am doing mid-sabbatical.\" \u00a0\"Here is what I am doing late sabbatical.\" \"Here are all the great thoughts the tax payers helped with with this semester!\" While I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":206,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions\/206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pages.charlotte.edu\/anitablanchard\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}