Copies of publications are available upon request by email at edelmell@uncc.edu
Rail Transit, Residential Mobility, and Income Segregation: Final Report
This is the final report for this project which summarizes its findings.
Delmelle, Elizabeth C., Isabelle Nilsson and Johanna Claire Schuch. “Rail transit, residential mobility, and income segregation.” University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change
Abstract: This paper is focused on the identification of, and the dynamics associated with, neighborhoods that are more prone to undergo socioeconomic and demographic changes following rail transit investments. Utilizing data from 9 metropolitan areas that have invested in light rail between 1980 and 2010, a k-means clustering approach is used to construct discrete multivariate neighborhood typologies. Together with Markov chains, we can examine transitions between neighborhood types before and after the opening of a station. Results for affected neighborhoods are compared to city-wide transitions to uncover differences. Our findings suggest that there is a significant difference in transit and non-transit neighborhood transitions. There also appears to be a difference in trajectories between Walk-and-Ride and Park-and-Ride neighborhoods. While neighborhoods are largely stable over time, impoverished neighborhoods are most likely to experience changes (such as gentrification) following the opening of a transit station. The most affluent neighborhoods are the least likely to experience change but are associated with the most probable trajectory of change featuring densification. Finally, there is little evidence that socioeconomic ascent following station openings is associated with significant changes in racial composition. Knowledge about neighborhood dynamics associated with transit investments can aid policymakers and planners in achieving socioeconomic goals of transit investments.
Nilsson, Isabelle, and Elizabeth Delmelle. “Transit Investments and Neighborhood Change: On the Likelihood of Change.” Journal of transport geography 66 (2018): 167–179.
Do Light Rail Transit Investments Increase Employment Opportunities?
Abstract: This paper examines whether rail transit stations tend to increase employment opportunities in nearby neighborhoods and whether rail transit tends to be placed in neighborhoods that connect to higher-wage jobs. The results show no significant relative increase in the level of employment in neighborhoods near rail stations post opening of the first light rail line in Charlotte, NC. However, the line connects to areas with significantly higher shares of high-wage workers and industries. While creating accessibility to higher-skilled jobs may result in greater economic impacts, it may conflict with goals of increasing employment opportunities for transit-dependent, lower-wage workers.
Canales, Kristine Laura, Isabelle Nilsson, and Elizabeth Delmelle. “Do Light Rail Transit Investments Increase Employment Opportunities? The Case of Charlotte, North Carolina.” Regional science policy & practice 11, no. 1 (2019): 189–202.
New Rail Transit Stations and the Out-Migration of Low-Income Residents
Abstract: This article tests the hypothesis that low-income residents disproportionately move out of neighborhoods near new rail transit stations. This transit-induced gentrification scenario posits that the development of rail transit will place upward pressure on land and housing values and that higher-income residents will outbid low-income residents for this new amenity. The most transit-dependent population may therefore be displaced from the most accessible locations, forming a paradox in the investment in new transit systems. We test this hypothesis using the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) dataset to trace the out-migration of residents across the United States from census tracts within five years of the opening of a new station, between 1970 and 2014. We find that low-income individuals are more likely to move, regardless of their neighborhood. However, we do not find considerable evidence that low-income individuals are more likely to move out of transit neighborhoods, after controlling for both individual and other neighborhood characteristics. The odds of moving out of a transit neighborhood for low-income residents is statistically insignificant. In other words, they do not have a heightened probability of leaving new transit neighborhoods compared with other residents. Our results are robust across decades when examining renters alone, for different time spans, and for varying definitions of transit neighborhoods. We further find that those living in transit neighborhoods are not more likely to live in crowded dwellings. Our results, therefore, suggest that, on average, across the nation, low-income residents do not disproportionately exit new transit neighborhoods.
Delmelle, Elizabeth, and Isabelle Nilsson. “New Rail Transit Stations and the Out-Migration of Low-Income Residents.” Urban studies (Edinburgh, Scotland) 57, no. 1 (2020): 134–151.
On the Link Between Rail Transit and Spatial Income Segregation
Abstract: This link between transportation infrastructure and income segregation has long been recognized in the literature but has received renewed attention with the increased investment in rail transit in US cities. In this paper, we examine the impacts of rail transit investments on neighborhood income diversity and metropolitan income segregation. For the neighborhood-level analysis, we apply a difference-in-difference approach combined with propensity score matching in 11 metropolitan areas that invested in rail transit between 2000 and 2005. We then estimate the effect of changes in rail transit access on income segregation across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the US between 1990 and 2010. We find no statistical evidence that rail transit investments spur changes in neighborhood income diversity when compared to similar neighborhoods elsewhere in the city. Similarly, we find no significant impact of new or expanded rail transit lines on metropolitan-wide income segregation.
Nilsson, Isabelle, and Elizabeth C Delmelle. “On the Link Between Rail Transit and Spatial Income Segregation.” Applied geography (Sevenoaks) 125 (2020): 102364-.
Impact of New Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Destination Choices and Income Segregation
Abstract: This article examines the neighborhood destination choices made by movers in neighborhoods affected by rail transit investments in the United States between 1970 and 2013 using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The results suggest that of those that move following the placement of a new rail transit station, low-income individuals are more likely to move to more disadvantaged neighborhoods following rail transit investments in their neighborhood when a small share of the neighborhood is covered by the station’s service area. If the origin neighborhood is more accessible to the station however, lower-income residents are equally likely to move within the same neighborhood or to a neighborhood of similar socioeconomic status. Middle-to-high income individuals that relocated, particularly homeowners, are more likely to move to higher income neighborhoods, particularly within a few years before opening. These results contribute to the ongoing debate regarding transit-induced gentrification, affordable housing in transit-oriented developments, and public transit’s role in shaping residential location choice and subsequent income segregation patterns.
Nilsson, Isabelle, and Elizabeth C Delmelle. “Impact of New Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Destination Choices and Income Segregation.” Cities 102 (2020): 102737–.
Should I Stay or Should I Go? A Survey Analysis of Neighborhood Change and Residential Mobility Concerns Around New Light Rail Stations in Charlotte, NC
Abstract: In this article, we examine the effects of rail transit investments on residents’ stated mobility intentions and perceptions of neighborhood changes using a survey analysis in Charlotte, North Carolina. We ask residents in neighborhoods along a new light rail line about their reasons for residing in their current neighborhood, thoughts about moving and the light rail’s effect on their neighborhood. To control for city-wide housing market pressures, responses from one station-adjacent neighborhood are compared to responses from residents in a similar neighborhood elsewhere in the city while controlling for individual characteristics. Using a mixed-methods research approach, we find that while residents attribute some changes in their property values and rents to the light rail, it is only one of many factors affecting their neighborhood. Light rail also does not appear to affect residents’ stated propensity to move out of these neighborhoods. Survey respondents’ view of the light rail’s effect on their neighborhood is also positive, on average. We find that the stated likelihood of moving is not related to the distance to the station nor to how frequently a resident uses the light rail. This article contributes to debates on transit-induced displacement and gentrification and provides context to neighborhood-scale quantitative analyses from residents’ perspective.
Nilsson, Isabelle, Johanna C Schuch, Elizabeth C Delmelle, and Kristine L Canales. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? A Survey Analysis of Neighborhood Change and Residential Mobility Concerns Around New Light Rail Stations in Charlotte, NC.” Journal of transport geography 86 (2020): 102790–.
Investigating Transit-Induced Displacement Using Eviction Data
Abstract: This article uses eviction data to test the transit-induced displacement hypothesis—that the placement of new transit stations will lead to elevated property values, gentrification, and displacement. We use a case study of four cities in the United States that built or extended rail lines between 2005 and 2009: Newark, New Jersey; San Diego, California; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We employ a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences modeling to compare eviction filing rates in gentrifiable neighborhoods near new transit stations with a set of similar neighborhoods not close to the station. We find limited evidence that new transit neighborhoods experienced heightened rates of evictions compared with the controls. In three of the four cities, the effect of the opening of the station on eviction rates was insignificant. Eviction rates did spike in St. Louis immediately following the opening of the line, but this period also coincided with the financial crisis.
Delmelle, Elizabeth C, Isabelle Nilsson, and Alexander Bryant. “Investigating Transit-Induced Displacement Using Eviction Data.” Housing policy debate 31, no. 2 (2021): 326–341.
Who’s Moving In? A Longitudinal Analysis of Home Purchase Loan Borrowers in New Transit Neighborhoods
Abstract: This article examines the characteristics of residents moving into new rail transit neighborhoods using longitudinal, individual-level data from the Housing Mortgage Disclosure Act. To disentangle the role of transit from other neighborhood amenities that may give rise to shifts in the socioeconomic or demographic profile of homebuyers, exploratory text analysis is first performed on property advertisements in transit-adjacent neighborhoods. This informs the creation of variables for our models that estimate the probability of an applicant applying for a loan by race and income, and highlights where light rail is most prominently advertised as an amenity. We do not find that the announcement of a new light rail line significantly alters the income profile of loan applicants. Rather, proximity to the center city is a more important determinant in attracting higher-income applicants. We do find that the announcement of the transit line is significant in explaining changes in the racial profile of applicants. Post-announcement, White applicants are significantly more likely to apply for loans in transit-adjacent neighborhoods, while Blacks are significantly less likely to. As for other amenities, the walkability of a neighborhood is significant in predicting where White applicants are more likely to apply for home purchase loans.
Delmelle, Elizabeth C, Isabelle Nilsson, and Johanna Claire Schuch. “Who’s Moving In? A Longitudinal Analysis of Home Purchase Loan Borrowers in New Transit Neighborhoods.” Geographical analysis 53, no. 2 (2021): 237–258.
Light Rail Transit and Neighborhood Change: Comparative Perspectives of Residents, Local Media, and Other Stakeholders
Abstract: Rail transit impacts on adjacent neighborhoods are contested. Through the lens of New Urbanism and sustainable urban development, this article offers a critical analysis of different perceptions of neighborhood changes occurring after the opening of a new light rail line in Charlotte, North Carolina. We conducted 15 interviews with representatives in planning, transportation, and real estate; 11 focus groups with 75 residents living close to a light rail station; and a content analysis of 86 local news articles. Although the various stakeholders do not represent homogeneous groups, light rail investments and associated neighborhood changes are typically viewed positively by planners, developers, and local media but have received mixed responses from residents. We tie this into a broader discussion about putting New Urbanism into practice. Besides furthering academic discussions, this article can inform local planning and policy in areas of transportation, housing, and economic development.
Schuch, Johanna Claire, and Tonderai Mushipe (2021) “Light rail and neighborhood change: Comparative perspectives of residents, local media, and other stakeholders.” Housing Policy Debate, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2021.1949371
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Rail Transit, for Who? Perceptions and Factors Influencing Light Rail Ridership in Charlotte, NC
Abstract: Cities across the United States are investing billions of dollars in rail infrastructure. This article examines the factors influencing rail transit ridership. Findings can help develop strategies to enhance current and future ridership and rider experience. We answer our question by collecting survey and focus group data from residents living close to a new light rail extension line in Charlotte, North Carolina. This mixed-methods approach provides complementary insights and expands our knowledge beyond the existing literature. An extended framework for modeling choice behavior helps conceptualize ridership and our findings. Data from both methods found that more frequent rail transit usage was related to not having a car, being male, being under 50 years of age, living closer to the center city, and living less than half a mile from the light rail. However, while conversations from focus groups found that income, education, and race influenced ridership, statistical analysis of survey responses did not find significant evidence for this. A car-focused city design and culture, and limitations of bus and pedestrian connectivity to rail stations acted as barriers to use. Additionally, focus groups gave insight into the purpose of use and route options, ease of use relative to the bus, perceptions on target and rider demographics, and prior experiences riding the rail.
Schuch, Johanna Claire, and Isabelle Nilsson (2021) “Rail Transit, for Who? Perceptions and Factors Influencing Light Rail Ridership in Charlotte, NC.” Travel Behaviour and Society, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2021.06.001
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Included or left behind? Residents’ perceptions on public investments, city growth, and local decision-making
This paper shares emerging themes from two series of focus groups in Charlotte, North Carolina, with 75 residents discussing a new light rail adjacent to their neighborhood. Community conversations about the light rail acted as an entry point for residents to bring up a range of issues they are dealing with such as housing cost, economic and educational opportunities, safety, government distrust, and feeling left out in a growing and changing city. On one hand, this demonstrates how the light rail is connected to a range of other issues. On the other hand, the rail acted as a symbolic and physical infrastructure through which residents could channel their frustration of not feeling included in the city’s growth, development, and change. We analyze these results through the lens of public participation theory, which offers a framework for understanding public input into local decision-making processes. Findings can inform inclusive planning and community development.
Schuch, Johanna Claire and Tonderai Mushipe. “Included or left behind? Residents’ perceptions on public investments, city growth, and local decision-making.” Urban Geography, forthcoming