global environmental change

Climate science movies

May 31, 2013 by Brian Magi
Categories: Earth System Observer

I held a screening of Thin Ice: The Inside Story Of Climate Science on Earth Day in April 2013, the day the film was released. The response from the students was good – they liked seeing Earth scientists working on complex data collection related to improving our collective understanding of the Earth system. thiniceBased on a written survey I asked many to fill out, I would say that the most general concern was that Thin Ice did not show enough data analysis – a great initial exploration into climate data is the National Academy of Sciences documentary on youtube called Climate Change: Lines of Evidence. I personally really appreciated the work of the Thin Ice film makers in showing not only how cohesive seemingly disparate problems in Earth sciences actually are, but also how enthusiastic Earth scientists are about their work. This enthusiasm, this love of their world and trying to understand it, is in my experience “the norm” amongst scientists studying some aspect of the Earth, whether that research is about the climate or climate change or weather or whatever (Earth sciences is a big topic). We love actively trying to solve these mysteries and understand how the physical world works. So I heartily recommend Thin Ice to anyone thinking about majoring in Earth Sciences or Meteorology or Geology or Geography. chasingiceYou may not work with ice cores or ocean-based research or even climate models, but you will have the chance to work with a group of highly dedicated people on problems that are interesting and sometimes poorly understood. Let your passion lead you!

Thin Ice the movie is available for mp4 download for only $10 through June 15 and you can watch from any device that plays mp4s. I will almost certainly screen Thin Ice in the Fall and Spring semesters of the upcoming academic year in my courses (Global Environmental Change and Applied Climatology). I am planning on buying another movie that visualizes change in a much different way called Chasing Ice. I haven’t watched this one yet, but I’ve heard very good things about the sweeping and powerful images of ice melting away before our eyes as the globe continues to warm.

Why is ice the theme of both movies? Well, actually Thin Ice is more about the scientists studying climate and my understanding of Chasing Ice is that it documents the ice as it is now with the implication that the ice will not be this way in even another generation. So, two ice-themed movies, but much different messages. Buy the mp4 of Thin Ice or watch for my screenings announcements. I’m 90% sure I’ll screen Chasing Ice in at least one of my classes as well. Visualizing global warming and seeing what scientists do (and LIKE to do!) is really important.

Tags: Chasing Iceclimatedata visualizationglobal environmental changeglobal warmingThin Ice

CO2 in the very merry month of May

May 30, 2013 by Brian Magi
Categories: Earth System Observer

The whole month has been an edge-of-your-seat wait-and-see when CO2 will stop hovering above and below 400 ppm and just stay above. Unlike Miguel Cabrera‘s triple crown of 2012 or the thoughts that he could repeat that feat in 2013 or even be the first since Ted Williams to hold a 400 batting average (can he do it – this evidence says yes), the increase in CO2 above 400 ppm is inevitable. Inevitability means you just need patience. Patience for me means more time to think about the numbers.

CO2 data are available from a number of sites

Sites around the world that are monitoring CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.

Sites around the world that are monitoring CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.

and there are differences in hemispheric CO2 concentrations that are completely expected due to emissions source location and atmospheric transport times, as discussed earlier. The Mauna Loa CO2 measurements are the ones I’ve been watching with more interest than this year’s baseball season and the daily-averaged CO2 concentrations are reported on the web and via twitter, among other places. Twitter is turning out some good and interesting data like this.

According to the twitter feed, daily-averaged CO2 exceeded 400 ppm on May 13 with CO2 of 400.16 ppm. By my own calculations using the daily tweets, weekly-averaged CO2 exceeded 400 ppm for the first time in the week ending May 19 (CO2 was 400.01 ppm). The next milestone is when the monthly-averaged CO2 exceeds 400 ppm, and then annually-averaged, and so on. We are approaching what should be the peak CO2 this calendar year as the growing season begins and CO2 is drawn down from plants breathing in CO2. Eventually, the Earth will be perpetually impacted by more than 400 ppm CO2 and even the seasonal drawdown in CO2 of 5-6 ppm from May to October every single year as plants in the biosphere convert CO2 into oxygen via photosynthesis will not overcome the long-term trend in CO2. The CO2 will remain in our atmosphere for 100s-1000s of years. The Earth will slowly re-equilibriate to this elevated CO2 through a myriad of processes that include ocean uptake, plant growth, chemical weathering, and finally increased surface and lower atmospheric (tropospheric) temperatures due to the absorptive power of CO2 in the infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The impacts of increased CO2 and other atmospheric components that can force climate into a new state are the main reason climate science remains active. In a post that will be ready as soon as the data is available (June 2), I’ll show the weekly-averaged CO2 trend in the month of May based on the Keeling Curve twitter feed. In other words, I’ll show inevitability.

Tags: carbonclimateCO2global environmental changeglobal warmingNOAA

CO2 and climate sensitivity

May 18, 2013 by Brian Magi
Categories: Earth System Observer

On Thursday, May 16, 2013, the official daily-averaged CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was reported by Scripps as (drumroll please)co2-2013-05-16Like I pointed out, 400 ppm is inevitable because CO2 increases by 2 ppm every year, but to actually see a value like that reported makes it more real. Now we await a value that is over 400 ppm for an entire week, and then for a month, and then it’s just a matter of time when we are in a world with 400 ppm of CO2, remembering how different this is than any time in Earth’s recent history as shown in the figure to the right (click to make larger).co2_800kRemember that CO2 in the atmosphere is a pretty simple physical perturbation on the Earth’s energy budget – more CO2 will result in an atmosphere that absorbs more of the infrared energy that the Earth emits to space to try and cool off. The energy that does not escape and is absorbed is then re-emitted towards the surface (and towards space). This forces the Earth to warm in response to try to bring the energy budget back into balance since balance is inevitably what everything in the universe seeks to achieve. This forcing of the Earth’s temperature has never been in doubt. The real question is how the Earth SYSTEM will respond to the extra energy or extra warmth. The SYSTEM is something I will start talking about here and it is certainly the most complicated aspect of climate science. Imagine the complexities associated with trying to understand how the atmosphere, ocean, land and plants, ice, and even humans and animals will all respond and how each affects the other! That is the heart of Earth system science and the heart of the very current discussion about climate sensitivity – a measure of how the system in total will respond to perturbations like more CO2 in the atmosphere. A very nice op-ed in the New York Times by Justin Gillis this week highlights the frank evaluation and debate about climate sensitivity occurring in the scientific community that has arisen from the apparent slowdown in the increase in globally averaged temperature (since about 2002 in the GISS time series or slightly more evident in the NCDC time series below)global-201101-201112The issue is getting a load of attention and, as Gillis wisely acknowledges, the analysis and studies in the peer-reviewed scientific literature will take a couple of years to “settle” on an answer. I agree. The public and policy makers and just about everyone wants to know the answer though so every publication or even statement about climate sensitivity will be intensely amplified. I’ve been reading about this issue myself, mostly as I prepare to bring the very current discussion into the classroom (here, here), but also because I am as concerned about the Earth as anyone. Here’s a final statement by Gillis that I also agree with.

Even if climate sensitivity turns out to be on the low end of the range, total emissions may wind up being so excessive as to drive the earth toward dangerous temperature increases. So if the recent science stands up to critical examination, it could indeed turn into a ray of hope — but only if it is then followed by a broad new push to get the combustion of fossil fuels under control.

Regardless of the climate sensitivity, changes to our lifestyles are inevitable. Will our society and will the USA be seen as forward-thinking or will we revert to the simplest and most destructive way to get energy?

Tags: carbonclimatedata visualizationglobal environmental changeglobal warmingNOAA

Cold spring and signs of summer

May 17, 2013 by Brian Magi
Categories: Earth System Observer

A great description of some of the unusual recent temperature swings in the north central part of the USA by Minnesota State Climatologist office with the original link here:

A taste of summer air surged into Minnesota on May 14th, sending the mercury soaring into the 80s and 90s across a good part of the state. A few locations even cracking 100 degrees. Notable exceptions were locations near ice covered lakes in northern Minnesota and near Lake Superior. At 2pm May 14th, the air temperature was 102 degrees at St. James and 44 degrees at Grand Marais. This kind of temperature range happens occasionally in the spring. One of the more dramatic episodes in recent years was May 19, 2009 when there was a difference of 66 degrees from Grand Marias to Granite Falls. The warmest temperatures found from a National Weather Service Cooperative site was 103 degrees from Sherburne 3 WSW in Martin County and Winnebago in Faribault County. Amboy also had reading of 102 degrees. Extremely dry air was in place as well, with desert-like relative humidity readings in the single digits at St. James. At 2pm while it was 102 degrees at St. James, the dew point temperature was only 28 degrees, creating a relative humidity of seven percent. Very low relative humidity readings happen on occasion. On April 28, 2004 the relative humidity dipped to just 2% at Pipestone. The lowest relative humidity reading ever recorded in the Twin Cities is 10% measured at 5pm April 22, 1953. The statewide hottest maximum temperature for the entire month of May is 112 degrees measured at Maple Plain in Hennepin County on May 31,1934. The Twin Cities had a high temperature of 98 degrees on May 14. This broke the old record high of 95 degrees that was set in 1932. This is also the hottest temperature recorded so early in the season for the Twin Cities. Ironically, despite how cool it has been this spring, 2013 had its first 90 plus degree day in the Twin Cities four days earlier than 2012, which hit 93 on May 18.

That last line is a pretty interesting weather tidbit, noting that the salient graphs from NCDC are below201304201302-201304 North Dakota had its coldest April in 119 years! Yow. Most of the central part of the country was colder than average, but by comparing the April 2013 to the multimonth average February-April 2013 plot, you can see signs of the transition out of spring to summer as well as parts of the country which had an above-average warm month (California, mid-Atlantic, Nevada, Arizona). More about this later – but these “extremes” are exactly the kind of weather we can expect as the Arctic warms or stays warmer than usual due to less sea ice. N_stddev_timeseries-2013-05The Sun will eventually win this battle and the mid-latitudes (southern USA) will inevitably heat up this year (at least I think so!). Here’s the temperature departure for the last week from HPRCC which clearly shows relatively warm temperatures creeping from the Pacific Northwest into the heretofore frozen Great Plains. 7dTDeptUS-2013-05-16 Summer is coming. Will Summer 2013 be like Summer 2012? Another question for another day.

Tags: climateglobal environmental changeNCDCtemperatureUSAWeather

Changes to Global Environmental Change webpage

August 24, 2012 by Brian Magi
Categories: Group News

just a few notes about the changes to my teaching webpage for my Global Environmental Change (ESCI 3000 this semester – Fall 2012, expected to be ESCI 3101 by Fall 2013) webpage. i updated just about everything there so the interface would be more useful for students, but there are many links to climate-related internet sources for discussion, books, visualizations, and of course DATA related to climate science. i will point out that the NCDC websites and the CMIP5 websites are especially useful. CMIP5 is family of model experiments that will support IPCC AR5 which is being written and revised this year and expected to be published sometime in 2013. CMIP3, I think, were the model experiments that supported IPCC AR4 publications in 2007.

Tags: GESglobal environmental changeglobal warmingteaching